Also published at On Line Opinion
Peter Van Onselen claims Julia Gillard is going to wedge Tony Abbott on electricity price increases by blaming conservative state governments.
There seems to be 2 prongs to this wedge strategy. The first is described by Gillard as “gold-plating” of the electrical network. Gillard compares the electricity supply as being the equivalent to a 10 lane highway when only a 2 lane one is required to meet rare peak demand situations.
Peter Van Onselen claims Julia Gillard is going to wedge Tony Abbott on electricity price increases by blaming conservative state governments.
There seems to be 2 prongs to this wedge strategy. The first is described by Gillard as “gold-plating” of the electrical network. Gillard compares the electricity supply as being the equivalent to a 10 lane highway when only a 2 lane one is required to meet rare peak demand situations.
The second prong is being pushed by her minister Martin
Ferguson who is demanding that the states privatise
the electricity suppliers.
Both these aspects of the government’s strategy are fraught
with political risks and contain considerable irony given the ALP’s past
policies.
Peak demand, the 10 lane part of the energy supply, is
indeed occasional but crucial to lifestyle patterns; daily peak times
correspond with departure and return to homes, and seasonally correlate with
temperature extremes. Australians are already using much
less electricity per capita; if peak consumption is to decline further
either major adjustments to lifestyle will be required [ie being colder or
hotter] or, alternatively, brownouts or even blackouts will occur, something
Gillard has said will not happen but which have been predicted by the AEMO
and the AER.
In terms of how the 10 lane highway came to be built in the
first place Gillard has overlooked the person who was most responsible for the
construction of the electricity highway, ALP stalwart, Bernie Riordan; as Professor
Sinclair Davidson notes:
The gold plating she is talking about has its genesis in a union campaign started a decade ago by a bloke Gillard recently appointed to a $350,00-a-year job with Fair Work Australia – former electrical union boss in NSW Bernie Riordan.
Riordan was the man who in 2004 forced the Bob Carr Labor government to impose the very reliability standards that Gillard is now claiming are responsible for the price gouging of Sydney families.
Former NSW Labor energy and planning minister in the Carr and Iemma governments, Frank Sartor, admits as much in his book The Fog on the Hill – claiming that because of Riordan’s lobbying he increased the reliability standards in NSW to prevent power shortages to consumers.
This followed Riordan’s first successful campaign against electricity reform in NSW, when he was instrumental in blocking Carr’s attempt to privatise in 1998.
Ferguson’s quest to privatise also contradicts previous Union
opposition not only from people like Riordan but the current NSW state
opposition leader John Robertson, who vehemently opposed privatisation when he
was the leader of the ETU, and still
opposes it.
This political maneuvering does not address the primary issue,
which is are the electricity price increases which have already happened due to
delayed and expensive infrastructure investment or the impact of the Carbon tax?
Electricity prices in NSW have risen by 69% over the last 4 years,
a rise which Gillard
claims had nothing to do with the Carbon tax. The argument seems to be that since
the Carbon tax only began on the 1st July 2012 rises which occurred before
then cannot be blamed on it.
This is creative accounting rather than a sound position. The
Carbon tax is a tax designed to reduce the production of CO2 emissions from the
burning of fossil fuels. That mission has more than the Carbon tax in its armoury.
For instance the Renewable
Energy Target [RET] legislation was introduced by the Howard
government in 2000 and refined and magnified by both the Rudd and Gillard
governments. The lucrative subsidies provided by the Clean Energy Finance
Corporation [CEFC] and the Australian Renewable Energy Agency [ARENA] are in the
process of providing over $13
billion to wind, solar, geothermal and wave energy start-up programs.
Those subsidies and other generous incentives to renewable energy are provided
in the context of the RET’s mandating that 20% of Australia’s electricity
should come from renewable by 2020.
The effect of the RET has already been in the electricity network
for 12 years; electricity suppliers are already buying electricity from the
renewables. The cost and reliability of that electricity from the renewable is
both far greater and far less than electricity from the fossils and has
contributed to the 69% increase in electricity prices in 2 ways; when the green
infrastructure is built and when the green infrastructure is working.
Green energy is much more
expensive than fossils and even nuclear because green energy requires fossil
fuel or nuclear to continue running as a backup. In addition, despite Gillard’s
declaration that it is ‘gold-plating’ to run an electricity network for
occasional peaks the fact is it is always peak in a modern electricity network.
This can be shown by seasonal
graphs of summer and winter consumption. It is clear that there are daily
peaks above the base load or average electricity use. Renewable energy cannot
cater for either the base load
or the daily peaks in demand and it is misleading to say that it
is a waste for an electricity system to cater for peaks in demand.
The only way renewable energy can cater for electricity use is for
the peaks to disappear and the base load to drastically decline. A green energy
advocacy group, Beyond Zero Emissions [BZE] devised an energy
plan to supply all electricity from green energy by 2020. A critique
of BZE’s plan was undertaken by professor Barry Brooks and engineers Peter Lang
and Martin Nicholson; they found BZE’s plan would necessitate a reduction in
electricity demand of almost 60% and cost up to $4.1 trillion. On a pro rata
basis a 20% reduction as mandated by the RET would cost only 20% of that, or
about $800 billion and require only a 12% reduction in electricity use!
Another example of the impact of the RET and its spinoff
alternative energy schemes’ impact on electricity prices before the Carbon tax
was introduced is the NSW solar feed in tariff rebate system.
The NSW scheme was introduced by the then ALP minister John
Robertson who claimed it would cost $362
million; by the time the Keneally government reduced the 60c per hour
rebate to 20c the scheme was estimated to be heading towards a cost of almost $4
billion. Even after the O’Farrell government further reduced payments to
the solar panel owners, the scheme is still likely to cost over $2 billion and
cost electricity users an extra $140 per
annum.
It is plain that infrastructure costs to do with mitigating CO2
emissions and developing green energy have been responsible for a considerable
portion of the 69% increase in electricity increases before the Carbon tax was
introduced. Since these measures are part of the same program as the Carbon tax
it seems unreasonable to claim that the Carbon tax has not been specifically
responsible for these increases.
Exactly how much of the ‘infrastructure’ costs already incurred, as
compared with those costs to be incurred in the future, are due to the Carbon
tax and associated anti-AGW policies is a matter of conjecture. Certainly some
necessary infrastructure upgrading was and still remains necessary as Tom
Parry, Chairman of the AEMO, notes. But
increasingly, if the RET remains in place, which is likely since the Coalition
supports the RET, then more and more infrastructure cost will
be produced by the construction of the various wind, solar, geothermal, wave
and other renewable energy installations, and the extra ‘poles and wires’
necessary to hook them into the grid.
Even the government’s information is lacking in
specific or correct information about the breakup between necessary
infrastructure work on the existing fossils and ‘new’ infrastructure work to
introduce the renewable into the system. However, Professor Davidson has
produced a graph of the 4 main categories of costs to do with the electricity
supply from the government’s proposed
brochure to be supplied to all households with their next power bill.
From this it can be seen that measures to do with either directly
dealing with AGW, the Carbon” price”, or indirectly, “Retail, customer service
and programs for energy efficiency and renewable” of the sort run by the CEFC
and ARENA and solar feed in tariffs, as described above will cost $29 of every
$100 spent on electricity.
The “poles and wires” ‘infrastructure’ column, however, is where
the main costs for electricity users will come from. Gillard is relying on her
message being that ALL that $51 will be due to State ‘gold plating’ and nothing
to do with the RET and other incentives to increase renewable power.
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