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All Scientists are Sceptics ~Professor Bob Carter

Whenever someone asserts that a scientific question is “settled,” they tell me immediately that they don’t understand the first thing about science. Science is never settled. Dr David Deming

Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the science of climate change is the lack of any real substance in attempts to justify the hypothesis ~Professor Stewart Franks

A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf

Saturday, April 25, 2015

The Vultures of Alarmism

Anthony Cox

The recent East-Coast storm was a bad one. These storms are not common but neither are they rare. There was one in 2007 which grounded the Pasha Bulker, another in 1974 which grounded the Sygna and the biggest of them all in 1955 which basically drowned the lower Hunter Valley.

This storm featured 135K/h wind gusts and wave heights of 14.9 meters. During the Sygna storm wave heights reached 17 meters and wind gusts up to 165k/h. Rainfall was much heavier during the 1955 storm and there was much greater loss of life and extent of damage.

So there is no trend or discernible evidence for AGW causing worse storms.

That hasn’t stopped the usual suspects from dredging up the usual statements about how this storm is evidence of AGW and the climate getting worse. Matthew England for instance is a typical alarmist advocate with a PhD:






And look at Flannery:



Poor buggers. They do look crook. They’d be full of beans now though with this recent storm to complain about and Flannery has also been upset about Lomborg getting some money to research at AWU which is where Lewandowsky and Cook did such great work on consensus.

But look at Lomborg:




Now there’s a happy chap. He’s getting on with the business of real science. Unlike sad-sack England who like the rest of the alarmists is sprouting rubbish about the storm like this:

Referring to the 2007 east coast low that hit the Newcastle area, and the devastation of the Brisbane floods in 2011 that was repeated last year, Professor England said there was a clear trend in repeat disasters. 
“All around the world we’re seeing the return period of storms, heatwaves ... the return periods are shortening and it’s consistent with what we’re seeing with global warming.”Professor England said while the frequency of storms aren’t guaranteed to increase, there were three clear reasons why they’re going to be more intense. 
“A warmer climate means more energised storms, the sea level is higher so we’re in a situation where the storm surge tends to be that much more impactful because it’s smashing into the coast with a higher sea level, and with more moisture in the atmosphere there’s more of a chance of higher rainfall events,” he said.

Now this is unmitigated bullshit. The Brisbane floods were exacerbated by alarmist and green policies which meant that Wivenhoe dam, a dam designed to mitigate floods after the 1974 storms which were bigger than the 2011 storm, a dam built as a flood mitigator which meant it had to be empty, was filled to the brim because alarmist propaganda about endless drought had convinced witless policy makers to use Wivenhoe as a drought mitigator. In terms of floods England is contradicted by the BOM’s own records:



Clearly the floods have not become more intense but less intense and frequent. And droughts have become less frequent as Dr David Stockwell showed.

He said less difference in the temperatures between the poles and the equator caused by global warming "could ­reduce the kind of hot-cold weather fronts that generate severe storms''.
There has been some great work done by independent researchers in Australia on heatwaves such as Jo Nova and Geoff Sherrington, Ken Stewart, Chris Gilham and many others. It’s a pity England didn’t bother to read some of their research or even familiarise himself with the BOM’s data.

But alarmists like England are not about evidence which contradicts the narrative of AGW. He and the rest have invested too much in this lie to give up on it now. This is why they act like vultures whenever a nasty bit of weather comes along. They seem eager to use the opportunity to push their belief irrespective of the facts. In this respect they are like vultures and their influence has not only cost Australia and the world dearly but also impacted on the reputation of science. The sad photos England and the rest of this gang took of themselves (such vanity!) is not a true image of where and what they are. In fact the before and after images of the Sygna best sum up the status and position of AGW and its believers today. The Sygna in 1974:



The Sygna recently in 2009:





Like the Sygna, after exposure to reality AGW has shrunk to the pathetic but still costly wreck it is today. England and his crew are still sitting at the helm of this wreck.

Global Warming More Moderate Than IPCC Worst-Case Models

Duke’s Nicholas School is a School of the Environment - not Environmental Sciences, or Environmental Studies, but the Environment. We strive for a new paradigm, one that views and attempts to understand the earth and the environment including humans as an integrated whole. (link)
A Press release from Duke Environment.

Global Warming More Moderate Than Worst-Case Models

DURHAM, N.C. – A new study based on 1,000 years of temperature records suggests global warming is not progressing as fast as it would under the most severe emissions scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).   
“Based on our analysis, a middle-of-the-road warming scenario is more likely, at least for now,” said Patrick T. Brown, a doctoral student in climatology at Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment. “But this could change.” 
The Duke-led study shows that natural variability in surface temperatures -- caused by interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, and other natural factors -- can account for observed changes in the recent rates of warming from decade to decade.  
The researchers say these “climate wiggles” can slow or speed the rate of warming from decade to decade, and accentuate or offset the effects of increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. If not properly explained and accounted for, they may skew the reliability of climate models and lead to over-interpretation of short-term temperature trends. 
The research, published today in the peer-reviewed journal Scientific Reports, uses empirical data, rather than the more commonly used climate models, to estimate  decade-to-decade variability.
Scientific Reports
5Article number: 9957 
doi:10.1038/srep09957 (link)

From the paper: Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using
empirical estimates of unforced noise by Patrick T. Brown, Wenhong Li,
Eugene C. Cordero & Steven A. Mauget published in Scientific Reports, doi:10.1038/srep09957.

Friday, April 24, 2015

Anzac Day: Centenary of Anzac Celebrations

In most ceremonies of remembrance there is a reading of an appropriate poem. One traditional recitation on Anzac Day is the Ode.
The Ode comes from For the Fallen, a poem by the English poet and writer Laurence Binyon and was published in London in the Winnowing Fan; Poems of the Great War in 1914. The verse, which became the League Ode, was already used in association with commemoration services in Australia in 1921.
"They shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old; 

Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn. 
At the going down of the sun and in the morning 
We will remember them."
(army.gov.au)
= = = = = = = = = 


Lee Kernaghan’s ‘Spirit of the Anzacs’ charity single featuring Guy Sebastian, Sheppard, Jon Stevens, Jessica Mauboy, Shannon Noll and Megan Washington:-

Monday, April 20, 2015

Pants -on-Fire David Karoly - 24 lies in 3 minutes - UPDATE

Previously this blog has written of IPCC Lead author David Karoly and his dissemination of  deceiving disinformation. (LINK)

David is revisited in this post.

In fact, David Karoly deserves the “Pants-On-Fire” award of the day. He wants to aim for a zero….carbon…..society that is 100% free of carbon by 2050.  Does he mean no diamonds, no graphite? As the human body is around 20% carbon, does he also mean no body…er or nobody?

We will interpret David’s reference to carbon and suggest he actually means carbon dioxide (CO2). Not very scientific to be loose with your terminology, David.

1000frolly has published an interview with David in which he let’s loose more lies. In fact 24 in just 3 minutes. In the youtube below he has added a beep for every one of David’s lies.


Here are just some:

The models are saying we need to act very urgently;
CO2 damages the planet and the climate;
We need large reductions in emissions so we don’t damage the climate;
Only a half degree up or down over the last 10,000 years;
The climate system is going faster and faster like a really big train;
The change is accelerating;
Greenhouse gases and carbon pollution;
As the worst polluter in the world, Australia has to take the lead;
There are going to be very many adverse impacts from climate change;
We need to invest across a whole range of zero carbon energy generating technologies;
We need to do this and to save money in the process;
There are energy efficient opportunities by using renewable energy opportunities;
There will be dramatic benefits from a carbon (dioxide) free society;

When will they ever learn?

The video below was removed from Youtube.




Sunday, April 19, 2015

Too Many Wild Cards in the Climate Game

Too Many Wild Cards in the Climate Game

Another Issue of "Carbon Sense” prepared for The Carbon Sense Coalition 
by Viv Forbes and volunteer helpers.



Climate alarmists claim incessantly that all bad weather is caused by man’s use of hydro-carbon fuels - oil, gas and coal.

They insist that man-made carbon dioxide is the trump card in the climate game. Their computerised models of doom assume ever-rising levels of carbon dioxide which will trump all natural climate controllers.

Unfortunately for their credibility, since at least the year 2000 global temperatures have trended level despite significant increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide.

The sun is the primary source of almost all of Earth’s heat. It is becoming increasingly clear that this gigantic heat generator, with its varying cycles and emissions, is an Ace in the climate game.

Then there are the massive oceans, whose vast heat capacity and ever-changing currents and oscillations also regularly trump the steady but tiny influence from man’s industry.

In order to explain the failure of their carbon-centric forecasts, the alarmists have thrown several other wild cards into the climate game. These include heat losses into the deep oceans and unexpected variations in earth’s cover of ice, snow, soot, particulates and volcanic dust.

Finally, they have created their own friendly climate Joker – data manipulation. They deal this card from the bottom of the pack onto the climate table to create artificial warming trends and heat wave “records” on demand.


Obviously there are too many Jokers and Wild Cards in the climate game for one simple carbon-centric theory to win a forecasting game, except by cheating or chance.

This is why warmists have not won a “Forecast-the-Warming” game for at least 15 years. 


Celebrate the Warmth. 

We should spend Earth Hour giving thanks for warmth.

Just thirteen thousand years ago, Earth was in the grip of a deathly ice age. Sea levels were indeed much lower but much of the land surface was covered by thick sheets of ice. Life struggled to survive and many species were extinguished by the sterile suffocating ice.

Without any help from humans, Earth escaped from the ice. And as the oceans warmed they expelled part of their dissolved carbon dioxide which nurtured an enormous increase in plant and animal life.

But the ice still lurks near the poles, and Earth has suffered several cold relapses. The most recent “Little Ice Age” just released its icy grip about 150 years ago.

The modern warming phase ceased around the turn of this century – there are teenagers today who have never lived in a phase of rising global temperatures. And our sun is showing disturbing signs of reduced activity, which may presage a new cooling phase.

Earth is on a climate see-saw between a warm green globe and a frozen white wilderness. Unless you are a penguin or a polar bear, you should spend Earth Hour celebrating today’s warmth and giving thanks for our cheap, abundant hydro-carbon fuels which will help humans to survive any return of Global Cooling.

Earth Hour – we need to celebrate Coal not Candles:
http://carbon-sense.com/2012/03/31/earth-hour/
Further Reading:

Cold Sun Coming?
http://www.spaceandscience.net/id4.html

The Neglected Sun:
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/9/30/the-neglected-sun.html



“Carbon Monoxide” - another Baseless Scare Story

There is another scare in the unrelenting war on coal – “carbon monoxide”?

The carbon dioxide scare has proved baseless – it is difficult to maintain a scare against the benevolent gas that keeps the world green and supports all life. So some alarmists think that a carbon monoxide scare will fly?

Carbon monoxide gas is generated naturally by volcanoes, bushfires and some animal metabolisms, and traces are always present in the atmosphere of Earth and other planets. 

It is indeed a scary gas at high concentrations – it is poisonous to air-breathing animals, inflammable in air and can cause explosions. But it oxidises easily and naturally to form a totally different gas - carbon dioxide, the gas of life.

Carbon monoxide can be produced by burning any organic matter in a confined place with insufficient oxygen. The exhaust pipes on older vehicles are the major man-made sources, explaining their use in car suicides. It was also produced from wood as a fuel in “gas generators” used to power motor vehicles during the petrol rationing era in WW2.

Carbon monoxide can be an unseen danger whenever wood, gas, coke, coal, dung, kerosene or cigarettes are burnt in stuffy closed rooms. This danger was once common in Warwick winters when, on really bitter nights, all doors and windows were shut tight and big logs were burnt in open fires. It is generated even now in NSW schools foolishly heated with un-flued gas heaters in poorly ventilated classrooms.

Coal power has largely removed that carbon monoxide danger.

Modern coal-powered generators produce clean silent heat, light and power for homes, schools and industry, with zero chance of carbon monoxide accumulating indoors. 

At the remotely-located power stations, the main gases released to the atmosphere are the two essential gases of life – water and carbon dioxide. This aerial fertilisation is noticeably encouraging plant growth on Earth.

Carbon monoxide is unlikely to be found above trace amounts in flue gases of modern coal power stations because operators continually monitor exhaust gases - its presence above trace amounts is a clear indication that not all of the carbon fuel from the coal has been burnt. In a well-designed power station, sufficient air is force-fed to ensure that every bit of hydrocarbon fuel is burnt.

Further Reading

Campaign Against Un-flued Gas Heaters:
http://cough.org.au/


The Overflow Column

Agenda 21 for Dummies:
The Climate Alarmist is a threatened species. Action needed:
http://scottishsceptic.co.uk/2015/03/16/campaign-to-save-the-climate-alarmist/

Ted Cruz: I don’t believe in climate change because I ‘follow the science’:
Submission by the Carbon Sense Coalition to the 
Australian Senate Select Committee on Wind Turbines:
The submission: “Why Wind Won’t Work” can be downloaded as a pdf from:

We also submitted these additional reports for consideration of the committee: 
http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/wind-power-hayden.pdf

Many other relevant aspects of Wind Power are discussed here, and we commend them to the committee:
http://carbon-sense.com/category/wind-power/

We are strongly of the opinion that wind power should not get any special subsidies, mandates, tax breaks or protective targets.


The Last Word - - Waterloo in Paris, December 2015.

The Grande Armee of Alarmists and Globalists has been pushed back to the suburbs of Paris. Things are looking desperate as the only active defenders of the faith are Obama, the UN/IPCC, the diehards of the EU, the left-wing media, the green billionaires club plus those camp scavengers who hope to share carbon tax spoils if the Green Helmets prevail.

Paris 2015 is now the crucial battle that we must win. The extremists want a binding agreement for the world to reduce global emissions by “at least 60% below 2010 levels by 2050”. (For Australia, that would probably reduce our per capita prosperity to 25% of 2010 levels).

We need to oppose every aspect of their agenda. In particular we need to demand that any international agreement on environment, energy taxes, emissions, climate reparations or sustainability has a “Get Out” Clause.

Keep the pressure on your local federal MP and Senator of all parties. “No binding Agreement in Paris and a ‘Get Out’ clause on anything agreed”.


Viv Forbes
19/04/15


Saturday, April 18, 2015

James Lovelock "Don't Call Me a Green"

The darling of the environmental movement, James Lovelock, has turned on the Greens, saying "Don't call me a Green".
Some other common sense quotes from Lovelock:
  • "Environmentalists appall me"
  • "Fracking is a damn good idea"
  • "Windmills and Solar Panels .... are just Silly things to do"
  • "We should have kept to Nuclear"

The Interviewer asks: Do you think we should give up trying to save the Planet?

Lovelock: Exactly!



LETTER TO SIR PETER GLUCKMAN

NZCLIMATE TRUTH NEWSLETTER NO 341
APRIL 18th 2015

IPCC Expert Reviewer Dr VINCENT GRAY


MY LETTER  TO SIR PETER GLUCKMAN


Dear Folks,

I have just sent this letter to Sir Peter Gluckman, the Chief Scientific Adviser to the  New Zealand Government.


Dear Sir Peter

I would like to comment on the speech Trusting the Scientist  published at http://www.pmcsa.org.nz/blog/trusting-the-scientist/ a summary of which you delivered to the recent seminar Scientists Speak Out organised by the New Zealand Association of Scientists.  

You begin with the following statement:
It is instructive here to consider what the public role of science has been until now. For much of history beyond the classical period, the answer is a simple one: little or none.   Or so it was, at least up until the modern inter-war period, and even then it was rather limited until perhaps the late 1980s. Before then the scientist with a media profile was, too often, looked upon with suspicion by his or her colleagues. 
Surely science has always had a vital public role if you interpret science to mean the  discoveries which are the basis for the many technologies which have led to the progress of human race. You seem to accept the existence and importance of the early science which culminated in ancient Greece and was the main influence throughout the Middle Ages. Modern science is regarded as beginning well before the 1980s with Copernicus, Kepler Galileo and Newton.

Early astronomy had always been professional. In Britain King Charles the second who founded the Greenwich Observatory in 1675 appointed the first Astronomer Royal John Flamsteed.

The King had already founded the Royal Society of London in 1663. In 1714 the British Government offered a prize for a simple practical method for determining longitude. Isaac Newton was one of the administering Committee. The story has been told in the book by Dava Sobel. The winner, John Harrison competed with the Astronomer Royal Nevil Maskelyne. One of Harrison's chronometers  was used by Captain Cook on his second voyage in 1772.

The French Revolution set up a committee which led to the metric system in 1799. A shame they did not do a better job on the calendar.

Weather Forecasting has a long history. The British Government set up its Meteorological Office in 1854 with Admiral Robert Fitzroy, former Governor of New Zealand. Its first gale warning for ships was 1859, Fitzroy was a mathematician and cartographer who believed in scientific measurements. He even designed a barometer.

You might note that the New Zealand Weather Service is by far the most popular scientific TV programme. It presents the climate of the entire earth every night and it enjoys the trust of everybody who consults it.

Scientists had a positive media profile when I grew up. Ernest Rutherford attracted crowds to his lectures. My school took us regularly to the lectures at the Royal Institution where we were introduced to the wonders of science.

I recently bumped in to a former colleague in the DSIR Chemistry Division who made a comment on how the public rang up the DSIR on any subject and had absolute trust in the reply. Hamish Campbell at the Seminar showed how he helped people with geological questions today.

So we now have to get down to what was the elephant in the room at the NZAS Seminar. Why is it that some scientists today are not trusted?

Everybody there knew the answer to this but nobody dared to mention it.

The truth is that many people are beginning to believe that some of the statements from scientists who are involved with climate change are deliberate liars.

I will give you some examples.

Some weeks ago the Dominion Post had a front page spread with a map showing how Wellington will soon be overwhelmed with  a rise in sea level. This was inspired by climate scientists.

Now there are no science journalists nowadays, so it did not occur to the presenter to enquire whether there is any evidence for this coming disaster. He did not know, for example that there is a tide gauge in Wellington harbour which has shown a fall in the sea level for the past ten years, and there are similar measurements all over New Zealand which provide no reason for imminent action.

Most people probably fell for the scare as their knowledge of science was insufficient to find out  the facts.

But there are many local residents on our coasts whose experience has shown them that sea level is not rising, so they have been disturbed by demands from local Councils that they must immediately upgrade their coastal defences or vacate their properties because of the advice of climate scientists to the Council that urgent action is needed. Some have succeeded  in reversing this nonsense, But their opinions of scientist have taken a dive.

The same thing has happened in the Pacific Islands. In 1991 the Australian Government established an elaborate programme for monitoring sea level in 12 Pacific Islands using state of the art equipment called Seaframe. There has been little or no change in sea level in any island  since then, particularly after GPS levelling was introduced in 2000.

Yet everybody believes the islands are about to fall into the sea.  This belief suits the Island Prime Ministers since it attracts aid and ease of emigration. But why does the New Zealand Government endorse this lie?

Then, we continue to be drenched with stories claiming the continued effects of global warming. Yet the preferred technique for assessing this property the Mean Annual Global Surface Temperature Anomaly Record which has been used to claim global warming in all previous IPCC Reports has now  been practically constant with little change for over 18 years. The excuses they give are pitiful. The change is decadal, when we already have nearly two decades. Then it is natural variability when they have  previously assumed that this was not involved  the temperature rise. Only now it matters.

The Climate Models which are supposed to give projections and not predictions consistently fail to agree with current global or  lower atmosphere temperature measurements.

Your own climate paper features the  claim that the Arctic ice is melting: when it is largely influenced by ocean currents, but you do not mention the Antarctic continent which now has record amounts of ice.

The UK Met Office which has been taken over by Climate Change people has consistently predicted warm winters when there are record cold ones. The recent US snowstorm led to protests by people wondering where the global warming had gone.

Your speech showed no sign that you would do anything about its subject except to encourage the rogue scientists to promote their lies, on the Dr Goebbels Principle that maybe people will believe them if they are repeated enough.

Regards

Vincent Gray

Wellington 6035